Is this the most terrifying video you'll ever see?

Or ..... we could just answer yes or no to OneST8's poll, go read this to see this thread's inevitable conclusion and instead use your time to go thank some of my other posts at random.

Seen it before and I think it's great. Really shows the logic to look past your own generation versus looking out for just number one.

Never random.

Edit: Okay, so never in a serious discussion. <<;

Of course, this is an excellent application of logic -- risk analysis at its finest. BUT humanity, mob mentality defies logic. No mob, especially when they are passionate about something, will ever listen to logic. Just look at the world around you....

I find it entirely egoentric of humanity to believe that the world ends when they themselves can no longer survive in it. This planet has undergone a multitude of apocalypses, each one wiping the slate semi-clean with the surviving remnants adapting and evolving to the new environs. Whether paramecium, trilobyte, dinosaur, wooly mammoth, giant sloth, caveman, human or magma monster, life will survive, and it will grow to fit the new mold of the world around it. I wholeheartedly embrace the future wastelands of scorching deserts and nuclear mutations, vaguely humanoid descendants with heat-reflective scales and nictating membranes over their eyes to shield them from the ozone-depleted atmosphere rife with radioactive sunlight. Who is to say that their lives, their culture and right to develop should be superceded by this arrogant, hairless ape of humanity? The fittest of us shall survive in the bomb shelter cities beneath the crust, and we will evolve into the hairless telepathic albinos of our own choosing. And if by some chance we are utterly obliterated, scientists of the next civilization shall unearth our artifacts and study our lives to live on as lore. Having grown up playing with toy dinosaurs, I am honored to know that one day a little albino, tentacle mutant may be playing with action figures made in my image.

Oh, and we shall NEVER run out of resources. Not so long as at least one man remains with more than one limb left and the stomach to pursue cannibalism. If my grandfather could survive six weeks in a foxhole eating bootleather, then the starving tribesmen of Africa in their lush jungle environs ripe for hunting only starve by their own choosing. Too many little starving babies? Feed half of them to the other half... problem solved. It's the darned moralist survivalists and their obsession with prolonging their bloodlines who cause the brunt of the suffering.

*happily enjoys his soylent green*

Edit: I see today Al Gore just won a Noble Peace Prize for informing the world of climate change. Very strange, I was always under the assumption that one had to spread peace via quelling wars and making diplomacy between nations for this prize... at LEAST speaking up about human rights or something related to peace. Alas, one must simply do a powerpoint presentation on the unrelated topic of their own choosing to be a prized peacemaker. Next I hope they will give the Achievments in Chemistry award to Donald Trump. I mean, he had a hit TV show lately, so there had to be SOME chemistry, right?

The only problem with the arguement is that the same arguement could be made about any number of potential global catastrophies from a pure logic perspective. Asteroids hitting the earth, aliens attacking, Judgement from god. Using the same purely logical argument there are all sorts of things we should be lobbying for. The missing piece is the likelihood of the catasrophy actually occurring and that's why the debate over Global Climate Change is an important one. Risk management is not a row only or column only thought process. Here's an example:

There is a finite real chance that a plane will fall from the sky and land on my house which would be catastrophic. The argument in the video would lead me to believe the only logical course of action would be to build a plane proof structure around my house to prevent this risk and the consequences but I choose to accept the risk because the cost is too high and the likelihood too low.

Likewise we need to understand the potential for the risk before we make risk management decisions. Just some perspective on fuzzy logic decisions.

There is no doubt that Global Warming is occuring, the only real question is if it can be stopped and whether or not we can do anything about it. 99.99% of the scientific community all agree that global warming is happening. The .01%, led by George Bush are not worth trying to convince.

Well, in the first of your examples, steps have been taken. In the latter two, there is nothing hinting at their immanent arrival, so those arguments are more or less straw men. Yes, they might happen. But the probabilities involved are astronomical (no pun intended.)

The chance of aliens invading in the upcoming century, with the assumption that (a) Aliens have not yet visited earth, (b) Aliens exist, and (c) Aliens have the means to visit earth, is (with a little BotE math) one in forty-five million, give or take, since they've not yet visited our 4.5 billion-year-old planet.

The judgment of God really can't have a probability assigned to it, as the biblical God could be capricious at times - but as there's really nothing we can do to ward against it if it were to happen, it really doesn't fit in with plausible disasters.

As for being hit and killed by a falling airplane - the chance of any one person being hit (annually) is one in twenty-five million. (This means that about 250 people are killed annually by falling airplanes, from an actuarial standpoint.) This still means that if you live to see a century pass, the chances that you will die in some manner NOT airplane-impact-related are (1 - (1/25M))^100 = 99.9996% (or about 1 in 250 000, from an actuarial standpoint). It's unlikely that this would ever feature on your life insurance.

However, one thing that IS likely to feature on your life insurance is climate change. These are the people whose livelihoods depend on statistical analysis. I really don't think anything that has them this worried falls into the same category as your knock-em-down examples.

While I agree that the logic is simplistic, the conclusion is accurate, given that the probability that climate change will happen, and be detrimental to the species as a whole, is, at the MOST optimistic, hovering in the mid-twenties. (Realistically, it may be a forgone conclusion.)

As in the classic Hawk and Dove example, "Chicken" - we don't know if the other car will swerve. We'll say that there's a 75% chance they will. But sitting in the car with us is the future of the planet. How sure are you that they'll turn the wheel?

Edit: Sorry, to clarify, this was meant as a response to Skywatcher's post.

Here's my recommendation.

If you're going to post from here on out, please put a preface in front of each post containing:

- What sort of vehicle you drive

- If you regularly purchase carbon offsets for that vehicle from companies like terrapass.

- If you propel yourself to work everyday or use public transport

- If you live off the grid, have catch/greywater systems, solar panels or other alternative energies, are kicking back into the grid, or have any of the other notable systems at play in the way you're living your life

- If you've actually created or engineered machines, systems, etc that are part of the overmentioned solution

- Any other notable "I am acting on what I am preaching" items

Now, if you *are* in fact working towards your own solutions, but really feel the need to keep at the argument click here. After watching this, smile a bit more as you post up on these issues. Then - suggest solution sets. Don't point fingers, don't say it's his or her fault, don't bring in theories that are so massively general that all it does is raise the pickets on both sides. Post up solution sets, creative ideas on what folks can do in their own home or community, and then maybe something will catch on with another person. And lo and behold.... you've actually taken strides forward instead of mulling about on the guy or gal you disagree with... who happens to be living exactly the same way you probably are!

:rolleyes:

That's my take for this evening at least. I'd love for folks to share ideas on affordable things I could be doing. Most of my solutions involve building a new house and what I can do there... which is still a million in cash flows off unfortunately. That and I live in a very very snowy community, so the only solution I have on the massive vehicle I own is to purchase carbon offsets. I don't know enough about alternative energy sources for my existing home, and would love to hear what folks have to share. If you're entirely opinion... I ain' got time for you bub.

Act in your own home first!