Submitted by darkstorme on October 9, 2007 - 7:17pm.
Well, in the first of your examples, steps have been taken. In the latter two, there is nothing hinting at their immanent arrival, so those arguments are more or less straw men. Yes, they might happen. But the probabilities involved are astronomical (no pun intended.)
The chance of aliens invading in the upcoming century, with the assumption that (a) Aliens have not yet visited earth, (b) Aliens exist, and (c) Aliens have the means to visit earth, is (with a little BotE math) one in forty-five million, give or take, since they've not yet visited our 4.5 billion-year-old planet.
The judgment of God really can't have a probability assigned to it, as the biblical God could be capricious at times - but as there's really nothing we can do to ward against it if it were to happen, it really doesn't fit in with plausible disasters.
As for being hit and killed by a falling airplane - the chance of any one person being hit (annually) is one in twenty-five million. (This means that about 250 people are killed annually by falling airplanes, from an actuarial standpoint.) This still means that if you live to see a century pass, the chances that you will die in some manner NOT airplane-impact-related are (1 - (1/25M))^100 = 99.9996% (or about 1 in 250 000, from an actuarial standpoint). It's unlikely that this would ever feature on your life insurance.
However, one thing that IS likely to feature on your life insurance is climate change. These are the people whose livelihoods depend on statistical analysis. I really don't think anything that has them this worried falls into the same category as your knock-em-down examples.
While I agree that the logic is simplistic, the conclusion is accurate, given that the probability that climate change will happen, and be detrimental to the species as a whole, is, at the MOST optimistic, hovering in the mid-twenties. (Realistically, it may be a forgone conclusion.)
As in the classic Hawk and Dove example, "Chicken" - we don't know if the other car will swerve. We'll say that there's a 75% chance they will. But sitting in the car with us is the future of the planet. How sure are you that they'll turn the wheel?
Edit: Sorry, to clarify, this was meant as a response to Skywatcher's post.
Re: Is this the most terrifying video you'll ever see?
Well, in the first of your examples, steps have been taken. In the latter two, there is nothing hinting at their immanent arrival, so those arguments are more or less straw men. Yes, they might happen. But the probabilities involved are astronomical (no pun intended.)
The chance of aliens invading in the upcoming century, with the assumption that (a) Aliens have not yet visited earth, (b) Aliens exist, and (c) Aliens have the means to visit earth, is (with a little BotE math) one in forty-five million, give or take, since they've not yet visited our 4.5 billion-year-old planet.
The judgment of God really can't have a probability assigned to it, as the biblical God could be capricious at times - but as there's really nothing we can do to ward against it if it were to happen, it really doesn't fit in with plausible disasters.
As for being hit and killed by a falling airplane - the chance of any one person being hit (annually) is one in twenty-five million. (This means that about 250 people are killed annually by falling airplanes, from an actuarial standpoint.) This still means that if you live to see a century pass, the chances that you will die in some manner NOT airplane-impact-related are (1 - (1/25M))^100 = 99.9996% (or about 1 in 250 000, from an actuarial standpoint). It's unlikely that this would ever feature on your life insurance.
However, one thing that IS likely to feature on your life insurance is climate change. These are the people whose livelihoods depend on statistical analysis. I really don't think anything that has them this worried falls into the same category as your knock-em-down examples.
While I agree that the logic is simplistic, the conclusion is accurate, given that the probability that climate change will happen, and be detrimental to the species as a whole, is, at the MOST optimistic, hovering in the mid-twenties. (Realistically, it may be a forgone conclusion.)
As in the classic Hawk and Dove example, "Chicken" - we don't know if the other car will swerve. We'll say that there's a 75% chance they will. But sitting in the car with us is the future of the planet. How sure are you that they'll turn the wheel?
Edit: Sorry, to clarify, this was meant as a response to Skywatcher's post.